The upcoming assembly election puts a spotlight on Vidarbha, which consists of 62 seats spread across 11 districts and is expected to be pivotal in government formation. It is fiercely contested between the Mahayuti and the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) coalitions. In the 2019 elections, the BJP emerged as the dominant force in the region with 29 seats, followed by the Congress with 15, the undivided NCP with six, and the unified Shiv Sena with four. Smaller parties and independents, such as Prahar Janshakti, secured five seats. With the split in NCP and Shiv Sena and the rise of independents, Vidarbha is anticipated to be a crucial battleground this time around, particularly in East Vidarbha comprising Nagpur, Wardha, Gadchiroli, Chandrapur, Gondia, and Bhandara districts.
Nagpur, with its 12 seats, holds significant political importance in Vidarbha and is gearing up for high-stakes battles. The BJP, which won 11 seats in 2014 but saw a decline to six in 2019, faces resistance in its stronghold in East Vidarbha. The Congress aims to capitalize on anti-incumbency sentiment in Nagpur city and hopes to reclaim South and Central constituencies, which it narrowly lost to the BJP in the last election. In rural Nagpur, the Congress is focusing on highlighting farmer distress and local developmental issues as areas of vulnerability for the BJP. The BJP, on the other hand, is banking on the popularity of its local leaders and organizational strength to retain its remaining seats.
In Wardha, battle lines are being drawn as the BJP braces for tough competition from the Congress in the assembly constituency. Deoli is expected to witness a contest between the BJP and either Congress or Shiv Sena (UBT), while in Hinganghat, the BJP is gearing up to defend its seat against NCP (Sharad Pawar). The contest in Arvi remains undecided.In Gadchiroli, internal conflicts within the BJP are presenting a significant challenge in this politically sensitive, tribal-dominated district. BJP MLA Dr. Deorao Holi has indicated growing dissent within the party, while the MVA is striving to unseat BJP by fielding strong candidates, such as Bhagyashree Atram by NCP (Sharad Pawar) against her father Dharamrao Baba Atram in the Aheri seat, and a close Congress-BJP battle in Armori.
In Chandrapur, an industrial hub and stronghold of BJP, tough competitions are expected in its six constituencies. A showdown is looming in Chandrapur constituency with both Shiv Sena and BJP targeting independent MLA Kishor Jorgewar. BJP leader Sudhir Mungantiwar is facing stiff opposition in Ballarpur after a challenging Lok Sabha election. Congress's Vijay Wadettiwar is seeking a third consecutive term in Bramhapuri, and the Warora seat may go to Wadettiwar's daughter Shivani following Congress MLA Pratibha Dhanorkar's LS win. In Rajura, Congress MLA Subhash Dhote might encounter a BJP contender.
In Gondia, strategies are being finalized as independent MLA Vinod Agrawal (now with BJP) faces a challenge from Congress's Gopaldas Agrawal in Gondia. BJP's Vijay Rahangdale will compete against NCP's Ravikant Bopche in Tiroda. The political scenario in Arjuni Moragaon remains uncertain as NCP (Ajit Pawar) is expected to announce its candidate shortly. Congress's Sasharam Korote is preparing for a tough battle against an as-yet-unannounced BJP candidate in Amgaon.
In Bhandara, conflicts are brewing among allies as all three constituencies are reserved for Scheduled Castes. Independent MLA Narendra Bhondekar, a Shinde ally, is facing opposition within BJP over his nomination. In Tumsar, NCP's Raju Karemore will confront his rival, former MLA Charan Waghmare, who is now with NC.P (Sharad Pawar) is vying for the seat, with Congress also showing interest, adding to the intrigue in Sakoli, currently held by MPCC president Nana Patole. The constituency is expected to witness a close contest, with several BJP candidates competing for the ticket. The Western Vidarbha region, comprising Amravati, Yavatmal, Akola, Washim, and Buldhana districts, has traditionally been a stronghold for the MVA coalition, but the BJP has made inroads in the past two elections. Internal disputes over seat-sharing between Congress, NCP (SP), and Shiv Sena (UBT) are complicating their election strategies in the region. Amravati is a hub of political activity, with intense electoral battles expected, especially in the main district seat. Congress and NCP (led by Ajit Pawar) are competing for dominance, while smaller parties like MNS could add to the complexity. In Badnera, Yuva Swabhiman Party's Ravi Rana, an ally of the BJP, is likely to face off against Shiv Sena (UBT) or the NCP. Former minister Yashomati Thakur of Congress is aiming for her fourth consecutive victory in Teosa, while other seats like Dhamangaon Railway and Morshi will see fierce battles between BJP and Congress or NCP candidates. Yavatmal is witnessing a struggle for the Congress to maintain its hold, as the BJP has made significant gains in the traditionally Congress-dominated district. Of the seven seats, five are now under BJP control, while Congress is fighting to regain lost ground, especially in Pusad and Digras. Seat-sharing negotiations within the MVA coalition are ongoing, adding uncertainty to the electoral prospects in the district. In Akola, a quadrangular contest is looming, with Mahayuti, MVA, VBA, and Prahar Janshakti expected to field strong candidates. Akot and Murtizapur, both reserved for Scheduled Castes, will see tough battles, as the BJP aims to maintain its dominance. The BJP faces the challenge of nominating candidates in Akola West following the passing of its veteran leader Govardhandas Sharma, while in East, it may retain MLA Randhir Sawarkar. Washim is poised for a triangular battle in the Karanja and Risod constituencies, where a fierce contest is expected.A three-cornered contest is expected among Mahayuti, MVA, and VBA in the upcoming elections. The BJP is likely to field Lakhan Malik in Washim again, while a new candidate will be chosen for Karanja after the passing of current MLA Rajendra Patni. Congress's Amit Zanak is seeking a fourth term in Risod.
In Buldhana, a unique situation will unfold with Sena (UBT) facing off against Sena (Shinde) in several constituencies, traditionally known as a battleground for the undivided Shiv Sena. Uddhav's Shiv Sena is aiming for victory in the Buldhana and Mehkar seats, while Congress is focusing on securing Malkapur, Chikhli, Jalgaon Jamod, and Khamgaon. There is a possibility that the NCP (Sharad Pawar) will nominate Rajendra Shingane in Sindkhed Raja, but discord within the MVA alliance could affect this contest.